By Tim Mullaney
John Moore/Getty Images
As Donald Trump rolled toward victory in seven of the 11 Super Tuesday states, ABC’s Kevin O’Leary predicted what The Donald means for the market: The 69-year-old sometime-real-estate-developer is going to win the White House, and it’ll be fine. Stocks will “ go straight up ,” the co-host of “Shark Tank” said on CNBC.
Goody! That means it’s time for one of the classic finance columns of any political season: the Trump Portfolio, where pundits single out who will be the winners (the list is ) and the losers under the new regime. I put the question through the most rigorous vetting that Facebook could muster, generating suggestions in a process as rigorous as the way Trump’s financial disclosures suggest he picks stocks.
Is it serious? You tell me, in the comments section below and on Twitter @timmullaney . Let’s say this: It’s the same mix of serious, kidding and you-gotta-be-kidding as Trump’s campaign itself. The trick, as with Trump himself, is to figure out which ones I really mean.
Buy Cemex, short Fluor
We know Trump wants a wall blocking the Mexican sun and to send Mexico the bill. If former Mexican President Vicente Fox — who said last week that he’s not paying for that f-ing wall — is to whip out his checkbook, Trump must buy local, leaving U.S. construction giant Fluor Corp. /quotes/zigman/272126/composite FLR +1.32% sin suerte (outta luck). So the deal’s going to Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. /quotes/zigman/216063/composite CX -0.11% , Mexico’s biggest construction-materials firm. You read it here first.
Supplementary Wall Picks: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. /quotes/zigman/583979/delayed BRK.B +0.09% and Procter & Gamble Co. /quotes/zigman/238894/composite PG +0.20% . If you ship 12 million immigrants home, you’ll throw business to Berkshire, owner of America’s biggest private railroad. Bonus pick for Procter, as Master Marketer Trump taps Puffs Plus as Official Tissue of the Modern-Day Trail of Tears. They’re softer than Marco Rubio!
And management consultant Jon Simmons recommends Toro Co. /quotes/zigman/243795/composite TTC +0.17% , as Trump Makes Americans Mow Lawns Again.
Buy Land’s End and L Brands, short Macy’s and Disney
Oh, the many comments, from high school friends Patrick Donnelly and Marie DeVenezia among others, about a run on warm coats as liberals decamp for Canada. Lands’ End /quotes/zigman/25798741/composite LE -7.25% can also stylishly meet demand Donnelly expects for brown shirts . And with the Hot-or-Notter-in-Chief running things, we’ll all know who’s a 10 and who isn’t . So Victoria’s Secret parent, L Brands Inc. /quotes/zigman/14920973/composite LB +0.58% makes the Trump Portfolio.
As for Macy’s Inc. /quotes/zigman/467976/composite M +1.03% , Trump called for a boycott after the department store dropped his made-in-China menswear, citing the whole Mexican-rapist thing. Macy’s then blew two quarters, tanking shares. Coincidence? Walt Disney Co. /quotes/zigman/245568/composite DIS +0.85% owns half of “Project Runway,” whose host, Heidi Klum, Trump assures us, is no longer a 10.
Buy Air Canada, short Emirates Group
No one’s letting Muslims in, right? And Trump’s son Eric says he’ll help buy tickets to Canada, presumably with cash flow from Señor Fox. Emirates actually belongs to the government over there, so it can’t be shorted, but facts don’t intimidate winners.
Buy oil stocks, sell solar stocks
Any man who will “ bomb the s—t out of ” ISIS will excite the worries about supply interruption that periodically spike crude prices. Maybe it will even save Trump buddy Carl Icahn’s $3 billion bet on Chesapeake Energy Corp. /quotes/zigman/126832/composite CHK +3.83% , recently farther underwater than Mar-a-Lago in 100 years if Trump reverses U.S. climate-change policy .
As for solar stocks, who needs the sun when Trump rocks that spray tan?
Buy Smith & Wesson and Campbell Soup, short Las Vegas Sands and Caesars Entertainment
Todd McCormick took a moment from accepting Facebook birthday congrats to tout AMMUNITION AND CANNED GOODS. (Todd likes caps lock.) Trump opposes gun controls, though he has supported some before. The legend says gun stocks spike before gun controls tighten; the charts say the stocks run when control’s off the agenda. And if there’s one thing a survivalist needs more than a nice AR-15, it’s some beans.
As for casinos, after four Atlantic City bankruptcies, we know nobody makes dough on casinos with Trump around. Moe Greene faced better odds.
Buy real estate investment trusts, sell H&R Block
The most consistently serious thought was that Trump, who dabbles in development since going insolvent 25 years ago, would promote interests of real estate investment trusts, which rely on tax breaks. On the other hand, Rich Hehmeyer notes Trump’s promise of a postcard tax return and wonders if anyone will need tax preparers. Understandably, he’s not betting the house that Trump means what he says.
Buy Realogy and Sotheby’s
Let losers debate whether Trump’s tax-cut plans would really cost $9.5 trillion or expand the national debt by 80% of GDP .
Winners know this: Every time a president unleashes top-loaded tax cuts, there’s inflation in luxury housing and art. Hence, Sotheby’s /quotes/zigman/241211/composite BID +0.95% , the top publicly traded art dealer, and Realogy Holdings Corp. /quotes/zigman/12214823/composite RLGY +0.63% , franchisor of Sotheby’s International Realty. When winners spend their winnings, these guys win first.
This was all a dozen of us, mostly high school friends, could come up with while actually trying to identify companies that would benefit from a Trump presidency. So let’s buy shares of Jack Daniel’s parent Brown-Forman Corp. /quotes/zigman/220587/composite BF.B +0.20% , even if its tequila comes from Mexico. Hillary Clinton says America needs a raise . But after Super Tuesday, we need a drink.